Interstate vs. Intrastate Conflicts: What Intelligence Professionals Need to Know

For intelligence professionals of all kinds, where a threat originates from matters just as much as the nature of the threat itself. Just as a cyberattack and a physical attack require different approaches, a threat originating from an interstate conflict and one stemming from an intrastate conflict require different approaches as well.

Both interstate and intrastate conflicts can take many forms in today’s world. For intelligence professionals who are considering their career options and pursuing an advanced degree, here’s a comparison of the two, interstate vs. intrastate conflicts, and the tactics used to gain insights on each type.

What Are Interstate Conflicts?

Interstate conflicts are conflicts between two or more nations. While this includes full-scale wars such as both World Wars, interstate conflicts don’t always involve official declarations of war or the deployment of armed forces.

Outside of traditional armed conflicts, interstate conflicts include:

Trade wars are economic wars in which countries impose sanctions, tariffs, import quotas and other measures on other countries. This can be done to undermine another country’s economy or protect one’s own economy.
Cyberattack campaigns are used to gain information, spread propaganda or damage the infrastructure of another country.
Proxy wars are conflicts in which two or more adversarial countries back opposing sides in another armed conflict. In U.S. history, one of the most prominent examples of a proxy war is the Vietnam War.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), armed interstate conflicts became rare after World War II. In 2022, there were only three active armed interstate conflicts. That was the first time since 1989 that there were more than two active interstate wars. Many of the years in between saw zero to one interstate war. Many nations engage in trade wars and covert cyber operations instead of engaging in armed conflicts.

What Are Intrastate Conflicts?

Intrastate conflicts are conflicts between two or more groups within the same country. Civil wars such as the American Civil War and recent conflicts in Sudan and Myanmar are one type of intrastate conflict, but other types of intrastate conflicts can be just as complex and devastating.

Types of intrastate conflicts include:

Civil wars of secession in which one faction wishes to withdraw from their country and establish a new one
Civil wars of succession in which multiple factions vie over the right to rule
Terrorism campaigns waged to further an ideological goal and intimidate other groups
Organized crime operations that create disorder on a large scale
Systemic violence and oppression perpetrated by governments on minority groups that often lead to genocide and ethnic cleansing

The CFR reports that there have been no fewer than 20 armed intrastate conflicts happening at any given time since 1974. There were 30 in 2022 alone. These types of conflicts have been on the rise since the end of World War II when there were only eight active intrastate conflicts.

Interstate vs. Intrastate Conflicts: Key Differences in Intelligence Approaches

As the interstate vs. intrastate conflicts comparison makes clear, the main difference between the two is a simple one: Interstate conflicts involve multiple nations while intrastate conflicts involve internal strife within a single nation. However, this simple difference means intelligence officials must approach each type of conflict with a different set of techniques.

Approaching Interstate Conflicts

A 2024 report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) of the United States identifies a few of the biggest ongoing and potential interstate conflicts the country faces today. While threats posed by Russia, China and other nations are included, those coming from the North Korean government serve as great examples of how intelligence professionals approach interstate conflicts.

Threats posed by the North Korean government include the country’s development of weapons of mass destruction and its organized cybercrime campaigns. To monitor these types of interstate threats, intelligence professionals rely on a few different types of intelligence and data collection techniques:

Imagery Intelligence (IMINT): pictures of resources of interest collected by satellites, thermal imaging technology and aerial reconnaissance missions
Measurement and Signature Intelligence (MASINT): data about weapons testing and other technology collected by tracking radiation levels, meteorological data and electromagnetic pulses
Signals Intelligence (SIGINT): data about technological capabilities gathered by monitoring satellite communications and intercepting various forms of other communications

While these techniques are especially helpful in monitoring isolated adversaries, they’re also vital to monitoring the military capabilities of any other nation that may pose a military threat to America or its allies. These tactics can also be helpful in gauging a country’s economic activities and resources and learning more about the nature of conflicts that don’t involve direct military confrontation.

Approaching Intrastate Conflicts

According to a 2025 homeland security threat assessment report published by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the threat of domestic and foreign terrorism is expected to remain high. However, the report points to other pressing issues of concern as well, including the influx of illicit drugs into the country, the subversion of U.S. institutions by foreign actors, threats to infrastructure and immigration security.

To monitor these types of intrastate threats, intelligence professionals can employ the following:

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) Operations: the gathering of data on groups and individuals by analyzing intelligence from public records, media reports and similar openly available sources
Social Media Monitoring: a type of OSINT that involves extracting data from social media platforms to track suspects, uncover trends and sometimes infiltrate criminal or extremist groups
Transactional Tracking: a method employed to both track suspects’ movements and discover how potentially dangerous groups are supported
Human Intelligence (HUMINT) Operations: measures that include utilizing informants, interrogating suspects and interviewing people of interest

Getting the most out of these tactics requires cooperation among federal agencies such as the DHS and the FBI and state and local law enforcement. When intrastate threats originate from or are supported by foreign actors, cooperation with international authorities is also key.

Given that intrastate conflicts often involve citizens and not members of state militaries or militias, intelligence professionals must remain cognizant of local laws and individuals’ civil rights. While this is true for intelligence professionals conducting domestic operations, it’s also true for professionals assisting foreign governments with their intrastate conflicts.

Prepare for a Career in the Increasingly Complex Intelligence Community

While the differences between interstate and intrastate conflicts are clearly defined, that’s not always the case for intelligence operations. Intelligence professionals must be prepared to collect and leverage data utilizing a wide range of tactics from an even wider range of sources. Through the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies (MAISS) program at Augusta University Online, you can hone the skills needed to do just that.

Students enrolled in the program can choose from one of three concentrations. The Social Influence concentration covers topics such as cross-cultural psychology and the weaponization of information. The Technical Intelligence Analysis concentration focuses on practices related to social media analysis, counterintelligence and utilizing machine learning. Students on the General track can tailor their studies to fit their specific goals.

To find out how this rigorous yet flexible asynchronous program can help you advance in your intelligence career, reach out to the AU Online admissions team today.

Sources:
Amnesty International, “Gang Violence and Unrest in Haiti”
Council on Foreign Relations, “Eight ‘Hot Wars’ During the Cold War”
Council on Foreign Relations, “Understanding Intrastate Conflict”
Council on Foreign Relations, “What Is Interstate Conflict?”
Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community”
U.S. Department of Homeland Security, “DHS’ 2025 Homeland Threat Assessment Indicates the Threat of Domestic and Foreign Terrorism in the Homeland Remains High”
U.S. Department of Justice, “Justice Department Disrupts Covert Russian Government-Sponsored Foreign Malign Influence Operation Targeting Audiences in the United States and Elsewhere”